Punctuality analysis using a microscopic simulation in which drivers' behaviour is considered

One of the recent problems in urban railways in Japan is that small delays often happen during rush hours. Because trains are running very densely, even a small delay propagates to succeeding trains and the delay tends to expand. In order to precisely evaluate the robustness of a railway system, a detailed simulation so called microscopic simulation in which components of a railway system are modelled in detail is used. There exist a lot of research papers with regard to the microscopic simulation, but they have not explicitly dealt with the manipulation by the driver, which is yet crucial to obtain a realistic result of simulation. We have developed a microscopic simulator, in which drivers’ manipulation is explicitly expressed. In this paper, we introduce how the simulator is constructed and how the simulator was effective in the analysis we did when a part of the tracks were relocated.